CDC confirmed flu cases show steep drop

Reported laboratory confirmed flu cases were down sharply for the most recent reporting period (ending Jan 12, 2013). 

CDC reported that out a total 12,360 specimens only 3,638 were positive for influenza (source FluView: http://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html).

Breakdown:

A (H3)                                                   1,603

2009 H1N1                                              45

A (Subtyping not Performed)            1,355

B                                                              635

But, it is hard to know what to believe when it comes to reported numbers.    Numbers for weeks 51 and 52 of 2012 have been revised (up) since they were first released.  So, the numbers for the week ending Jan 12, 2013 may be revised in the future.  It is troubling why the numbers are being tinkered with.  CDC receives a certain number of specimens per week.   This number should not change.  But, it appears that CDC is releasing numbers before the final counts are in (thus lessening their usefulness). 

As previously reported on this blog, the hysteria surrounding flu this season appears to be overblown.  And now the hard numbers are bearing this out.

Calling BS on the Flu Hysteria for the week ending Jan 5, 2013

The Numbers Do Not Add Up

Who to believe, the CDC or the New York State Department of Health?

Last week, New York Governor Cuomo declared a public health emergency due to an outbreak of influenza.   But, the numbers just don’t add up.   The CDC has published numbers that show the new number of laboratory confirmed cases of flu nationwide totaled 4,222 (for week 1, 2013), down from a high of 5,108 for the last week of 2012. 

But, New York State is claiming that [laboratory-confirmed] “influenza was reported in all 57 counties plus New York City. There were 4,059 total reports, a 7% decrease over last week,”
 according to the weekly STATEWIDE INFLUENZA SURVEILLANCE REPORT, for the week ending January 5, 2013 (source: http://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/communicable/influenza/surveillance/2012-2013/flu_report_current_week.pdf).

The numbers just do not add up.  New York State cannot account for nearly 100% of all flu cases nationally. 

Weekly confirmed flu cases reported to CDC (source FluView, http://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html).

YEAR      WEEK    number of confirmed cases

2012       40           162

2012       41           197

2012       42           299

2012       43           339

2012       44           408

2012       45           618

2012       46           841

2012       47           1328

2012       48           1995

2012       49           3366

2012       50           4449

2012       51           5417

2012       52           5108

2013       1              4222

TOTAL # , LAB CONFIRMED (NATIONALLY) CASES FOR THE SEASON:  28,749

TOTAL H3N2v FOR THE SEASON:  0