European Centre for Disease Prevention modest recommendation for flu shots

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control continues to advise that only older adults and people with pre-existing conditions get the flu shot.

Unlike the US CDC which recommends blanket immunization of the population, the Europeans take a much more measured approach.

There are various reasons for this, but the most likely reason is that there is not as much pressure from the pharmaceutical industry or they are better able to resist the pressure compared with the US regulators.


http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/seasonal_influenza/basic_facts/Pages/factsheet_general_public.aspx

Flu Season Appears To Be Ebbing, 4222 cases reported, but flu scare marches on

The influenza (“flu”) season appears to be ebbing.  For the week ending Jan 5, there were 4,222 laboratory confirmed cases reported to the CDC (source:  FluView http://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html).

Out of a US population of 312 million, your chances of getting the flu are approaching zero. 

But, the drumbeat of the flu scare marches on. 

Approximately 130 million doses of the flu vaccine have been administered.   Millions of prescriptions for antivirals, like Tamiflu, have been written (even though the effectiveness this treatment has been called into question).

And, although nearly 27,500 people went to the hospital for flu-like symptoms, only 1/6 actually had the flu, so the vast majority of these symptoms were for something else.  

By the numbers --

Laboratory confirmed cases reported to the CDC for the week ending Jan 5, 2013:

A (subtyping not performed)                          1,550

A (H3)                                                                   1,783

A (H1)                                                                         0

B                                                                                853

2009 H1N1                                                                36

H3N2v                                                                         0

 

Total:                                                                     4,222

                                                               

CDC Flu Scare Campaign Off To An Early Start

The CDC held a briefing this week in which they claimed significant increases in flu activity, but not once did they mention any real numbers.  However, by scouring information on the CDC site it becomes apparent that real flu activity is still virtually non-existent. 

In essence, the CDC’s claim is based on earlier numbers where there were virtually no laboratory verified cases, compared to now where there are several hundred verified cases (at most) per type of flu.  Yes, you read this correctly – there are still only hundreds of flu cases, per type (out of a US population of 312 million). This is a significant increase in percentages, but not in real numbers.

Why is the CDC intent on scaring people into getting flu shots?   There are many possible reasons for this, but there are just as many reasons (and perhaps more) that the average person should be leery of getting the flu jab.   

And, nowhere else but in the United States do medical authorities urge blanket coverage of the entire population.

The CDC loves to spout numbers such as the potential for 49,000 people to die.  This is irresponsible and the number has been proven to be inaccurate.  The CDC concedes that this number is an estimate and is grouped together with pneumonia deaths.    And, of course, neither the CDC nor any other authority in the US actually tracks flu deaths – so the numbers are entirely made up out of whole cloth.  You will note that the use of vague language, like “could” or “as many as.”

The real scandal is that media outlets lap this up as if this was real news (and is “truth”).  Whatever happened to investigative journalism?

H3N2

According to the briefing, the big culprit this year is H3N2, yet the number of reported, verifiable cases (according to their own site, for the most recent weekly period) is, you guessed it, zero.

Here are the numbers, as reported by CDC, (for the most recent reporting period, for the week of November 24):

A (H1): 0

A (Unable to sub-type): 0

A (H3): 755

2009 H1N1:  11

A (subtyping not performed): 701

B: 678

H3N2v: 0

We remain skeptical of the CDC’s blanket recommendation and urge citizens to get the facts for themselves. 

FluCide drug candidate shows promise but the mouse gets it in the end. NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB)

NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) announced that a recent animal study of it's FluCide drug candidate, showed a quadrupling in efficacy over a previous study.

In the study, mice were aspirated with one million virus particles of the H1N1 flu virus. The mice were treated with both FluCide and Tamiflu 24 hours later. The results show that the mice treated with Tamiflu survived only 8.3 days, while the FluCide treated mice were able to hold on for 20.2 to 22.2 days.

The full announcement is here:
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110321005653/en/NanoViricides-Reports-Treatment-FluCide-Drug-Candidate-Achieves

Pediatric flu deaths at low level, reports CDC

The CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) is reporting that pediatric mortality linked to influenza is at the lowest level in years, with 30 deaths so far this season.

According to the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, as "of February 5, 2011, a total of 30 influenza-related pediatric deaths from 18 states (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and West Virginia) and New York City have been reported to CDC for the 2010--11 season.

Nine deaths were associated with influenza A (H3N2) virus infection, 12 deaths were associated with influenza B virus infection, three deaths were associated with influenza A (H1N1), and six were associated with an influenza A virus for which the subtype was not determined. Twenty of these deaths occurred during January 16--February 5, 2011.

During the 2009 pandemic, 329 pediatric deaths were reported during April 15, 2009--January 23, 2010.

Before the pandemic, 65 influenza-related pediatric deaths were reported for the 2008--09 season (through the week ending April 11, 2009), 88 pediatric deaths were reported for the 2007--08 season, and 77 pediatric deaths were reported for the 2006--07 season."

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6006a4.htm?s_cid=mm6006a4_w

CSL (ASX: CSL.AX ): profits hit by strong dollar, one-off contribution from sale of pandemic flu vaccine

CSL (ASX: CSL.AX ) : profits hit by strong dollar, one-off contribution from sale of pandemic flu vaccine


From the announcement:

"CSL Limited today announced a profit after tax of $500 million for the six months ended 31 December 2010.

This result included an unfavourable foreign exchange impact of
$47 million. Net profit after tax in the prior comparable period was $617 million, which included a one-off contribution from the sale of pandemic influenza vaccine (H1N1)."

According to Dr McNamee, CSL’s Managing Director, the "success of our novel A (H1N1) influenza or ‘swine flu’ vaccine, Panvax®, in the
prior comparable period was a one-off contribution and, as foreshadowed, resulted in a decline in our headline profit."

CSL Intermim release available via this link:
http://www.csl.com.au/s1/cs/auhq/1187378853299/news/1255925859621/prdetail.htm

Cold F-X producer, Afexa Life Sciences (TSX: FXA) announces third quarter results, and fewer colds.

Cold F-X producer Afexa Life Sciences (TSX: FXA) announces third quarter results, and fewer colds.

Afexa reports earnings of one penny a share.

"As we have stated previously, revenue from our lead product, COLD-FX is highly dependent on the frequency and severity of colds and flu experienced in Canada," commented Jack Moffatt, Afexa's Chairman and CEO. "The incidence of cold and flu will continue to fluctuate and contribute to quarter-to-quarter volatility in our revenue. This year retailers entered calendar 2010 well stocked with product, in anticipation of a normal cold and flu season. However, in calendar 2010 incidence of colds and flu were much lower than the prior year. In particular, the January to April 2010 period, post H1N1, was very light and continued to be light well into the fall 2010 cold and flu season."

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/stock-alert/afxsf_fxa_afexa-announces-2011-third-quarter-results-1485736.html

Time: A new project to track animal diseases before they infect humans

A new report from Time Magazine cites examples of diseases that have jumped from animals to humans.
http://healthland.time.com/2011/02/08/a-new-project-to-track-animal-disease-before-they-infect-humans/

"The virus that would trigger the H1N1/A pandemic in the spring of 2009 emerged in Mexico, and appeared to jump not from birds but from pigs. (Hence the term "swine flu.") It was as if the world's epidemiologists has been preparing for an invasion from the east only to be hit in our soft underbelly. While the Mexican government should be applauded for reacting to the new virus relatively well — and more importantly, in an open fashion — the fact that it emerged in a medical blind spot almost certainly slowed the international reaction to the new pandemic. Luckily, H1N1/A ended up being fairly weak, but if the virus had been a killer on level with the 1918 pandemic, that lost time could have meant lost lives.

Read more: http://healthland.time.com/2011/02/08/a-new-project-to-track-animal-disease-before-they-infect-humans/#ixzz1DZfWwtbr"


The Global Viral Forecasting project http://www.gvfi.org/ is trying to predict and prevent future pandemics.

Generics & lower flu vac sales hit Sanofi-Aventis (SNY, SAN.PA)

Generics & lower flu vaccine sales hit Sanofi-Aventis (SNY, SAN.PA)

Sanofi-Aventis provided guidance that earnings per share could drop 5-10 % this year.
http://sanofi-aventis.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=311

“Despite the absence of A/H1N1 vaccines sales and the impact of generic competition, double digit sales increase(6) of growth platforms and cost control should lead to 2011 business EPS(1) 5% to 10% lower at CER than 2010 business EPS(7), barring major unforeseen adverse events. This guidance does not assume a return of generics of Eloxatin® in the U.S. and does not include any benefit from a possible acquisition of Genzyme.”

Universal Flu Vaccine - too good to be true?

Testing of universal flu vaccine has found early success. A small scale study at Oxford's Jenner Institute found promising results for tests of the feasibility of a possible universal vaccine that could one day replace the yearly flu shot.

According the to report on the medical site, WebMD, "such a vaccine could also help prevent pandemics such as the recent outbreaks of H1N1 swine flu.

Traditional flu vaccines target proteins that sit on the virus’s outside coat and harness the body’s existing antibodies to fight infection. However, these proteins tend to mutate, meaning that manufacturers have to develop new vaccines.

The new treatment targets proteins inside the flu virus that are common across all strains and use existing antiviral T cells to attack the virus."

http://www.webmd.boots.com/cold-and-flu/news/20110207/early-success-for-universal-flu-vaccine

Longer article about this research via The Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/feb/06/flu-universal-vaccine-test-success?CMP=twt_gu

Swine flu spread boy-to-boy and girl-to-girl, in public school

Scientists have discovered that the swine flu was transmitted to the same gender at three times the rate of opposite gender infections, according to a story in the Milwaukee Wisconsin Journal Sentinel (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/115036389.html).

"Researchers in the U.S. and England are reporting that in the 2009 swine flu pandemic, boys most often infected other boys, while girls tended to infect other girls.

The study examining how swine flu spread in an elementary school was conducted by scientists at Imperial College London, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Pennsylvania Department of Health and appears in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The researchers looked at how social networks influenced the way in which the H1N1 pandemic spread through an elementary school in Pennsylvania. Their findings could help health officials plan responses to future epidemics.

The scientists found that children were three times more likely to transmit the flu to children of the same gender than to children of the opposite gender. They also found that the rate of flu transmission was five times higher between children in the same class than it was between children in the same grade but different classes. The rate of transmission was 25 times high between children in the same class than between children in different grades.

However, the scientists found that a child's risk of catching the flu did not rise significantly when he or she sat next to a child with the flu.

In all, 370 children were involved in the study. They attended a school that closed 18 days after the swine flu outbreak began. At the time, 27% of the students were showing symptoms.

"The data from this study will help us make more accurate models, which can help public health officials to handle epidemics effectively," said Simon Cauchemez, who works at Imperial College London and led the study. "For example, these new models could help us better understand whether and when it would be appropriate to close a school, or whether it might be better to close individual classes or grades.""

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/115036389.html

If you survived Swine Flu, you may now have super immunity, reports National Institute of Health

A study published in the Journal of Experimental Medicine (http://jem.rupress.org/content/208/1/181) indicates that people previously exposed to Swine Flu (H1N1) may have a super immunity to multiple strains of the flu, reports the National Institute of Health (http://www.niaid.nih.gov/news/newsreleases/2011/Pages/H1N1Bcell.aspx).

Thus, the potential for developing a "pan influenza vaccine" is theoretically possible.

According to the report on the National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases website: "The investigators speculate that multiple exposures to seasonal influenza viruses and influenza vaccines over the years have given rise to memory cells that recognize the conserved regions of the virus. After a person is infected with 2009 H1N1, these cells become the source of antibody-producing plasmablasts. While broadly neutralizing antibodies have rarely been seen in people after exposure to seasonal viruses or vaccines, this study suggests that the outcome of 2009 H1N1 infection is different. Overall, the study shows that 2009 H1N1 can induce broadly protective human antibodies that bind to parts of the influenza virus that vary little from strain to strain, providing a potential immune target for use in a universal influenza vaccine."

And, mice used in experiments were found to be protected from lethal doses of Swine Flu and two other strains of flu. Thank goodness the mice are safe!

Is a serious swine flu outbreak heading to the US? Or, is this just more crappy journalism?

According to US News & World Report, H1N1 flu ("swine flu") is hitting the UK hard, and may be headed to the US.

Apparently, planes travel from the UK to the US. Thus, the report conjectures that the US may be hit.

Of course, this is based on nothing other than a need to create a sensational headline and is typical of the fear mongering that goes along with the topic.

So, reader be warned, US News & World Report continues to set the bar extremely low.


http://health.usnews.com/health-news/managing-your-healthcare/research/articles/2011/01/20/h1n1-flu-is-raging-in-britain-could-us-be-next?PageNr=1

Universal Flu Vaccine on the horizon?

Researchers from the University of Chicago and Emory University are reporting that patients with the 2009 H1N1 flu developed antibodies to multiple strains of flu. This insight could potentially lead to a universal vaccine. However, development of such a vaccine would likely be at least 5-10 years away.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/health/jan-june11/flu_01-18.html


.